WHAT'S COMING...1/20/11

WINTER STORM WARNING

Thurs Morning Update:

The snow has moved in and the models have backed off with the snowfall totals, however, I think this may be a case of where they are wrong.

Watching the radar this morning I see some heavy banding setting up and I think the 'heating of the day' adds to the instability.

I expect the intensity to pick up as we head towards lunch and then start to lighten up around the rush hour. The heaviest snows should be from 11am to 4pm today. I am going to stick with my 5" call at this point. Besides...it will be so windy and the snow will be blown all around by the time we can get a measurement...We'll always have that to fall back on! ;-)

Be careful out there this afternoon...and I'd get a few layers ready for tomorrow...it will be lucky to get into the Teens!

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It's mid-week and DO YOU KNOW WHERE YOUR SHOVEL IS? Time to put the umbrella away and dig out the shovel and salt....you're gunna need it by Thursday night.

Yes folks, a Winter Storm Warning is up for the Cincinnati Area, and we agree this one will be a "shoveler". Click HERE for the details.

This is going to be a 24 hour storm and primarily through the daylight hours on Thursday. So if the schools don't cancel Thursday morning, you may be looking at an early release. We think this one gets going just before the morning rush on Thursday and finishes just after midnight.

A storm will come out of Wyoming and Nebraska on Wednesday (watch the radar below) and it will track across Missouri and right into the Ohio Valley for Thursday. Snow should start just before the morning rush hour and pick up in intensity as we head towards lunch on Thursday. It will continue into the evening and should begin to taper off around the evening rush hour.

All said and done, we think right around 5" is a good call on this one. And this won't be one of those "South of the river gets this and north gets that"...this one is set up to get everyone in on the action!

We'll be watching the noon model runs and will let you know of any changes...but for now, I'd locate that shovel!

Here's how we see the accumulations going on Thursday:

Severe Weather Outlook

Today's Severe Weather Outlook
Below is a live feed from Intellicast of the Severe Weather Outlook for today.  These maps are generated from the National Storm Prediction Center and are updated 5x a day.  That feed will automatically update the map you see here.

They can be a bit confusing with the definitions they give, so we've provided some that are a bit more 'logical'!!!

GENERAL - Typical Thunderstorms
SLIGHT - Actually Means Severe Weather Likely
MODERATE - Duck and Cover
HIGH RISK - Leave!!!

Watches/Warnings

4"-5"...1/7 Update

IT'S HEEERRREEEE...

AFTERNOON UPDATE: No big changes to update everyone on. The storm is performing as expected. The 'Wildcard' was played and the Bursts of heavy snow have been fun to watch.
Snow will wind down and the winds will pick up this evening. Another inch is possible as we head from Thurs night through Friday...but the next story is the Wind and COLD coming.

We think the storm will continue to bring snow through most of the afternoon with heavier bursts from time to time before tapering down by the evening rush.
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There are 3 things to watch today...

1. The Heavy Burst of snow late morning/early afternoon due to the Wildcard (read below)
2. The Dryslot coming very close to the area
3. The winds picking up tonight

These three things will determine exactly how much you receive in your backyard. Now, don't forget, this is going to be primarily a daytime event. Not sure why the schools went on a delay as things will go downhill quickly as we head through the morning.

We still like the call of 3"-5" across the area. With the heaviest being on the North and West side of the city and the lower amounts on the East. Check out our snowfall map below.

After reviewing the forecast models, there is 1 new development. A "Wildcard" if you will. The storm will cause Divergence (splitting of winds high in the atmosphere) over the area around and just after lunch. This will cause the air over the area to rise quickly and enhance the snowfall for a few hours. Where that happens isolated snowfall amounts could be a bit higher in those locations.

Click the image below to see what it looks like...or you could just take our word for it.

We'll be monitoring the storm through the day, and let you know of any changes or updates.

KEEP IT CLOSE!

TIMELINE:

• 7am-9am Thurs: Snow Begins

• 9am-4pm Thurs: Snow...Increasing In Intensity

• 4pm-Fri: Snow Showers

2"-3" Accumulation by 6pm...additional 1"-2" through Friday.

(CLICK IMAGE TO ENLARGE)

Total Accumulations 3"-5"