Wednesday, January 28, 2009

Our Thoughts...BURST

TUESDAY 4:30PM UPDATE
The Burst has centered itself right over Hamilton county and is stationary. Hamilton, Butler, Warren, and counties east along the river in Ohio and Kentucky will be under the "burst" of this storm and will pick up near 6" of snow before all is said and done. The situation is isolated and if you are outside of the burst we still expect most areas to get 2"-3" of snow.

So we are going a bit higher than most with snowfall totals. I've heard everything from a dusting to 1" with isolated 2". We think this will be a bit more dramatic than that.

Interactive 7 Day Forecaster




Take a look at the interactive weather forecaster. There is a weekly forecast as well as hour by hour and radar. Refresh the page if forecaster is missing.

Sunday, January 25, 2009

The Latest Jan Hit

11:00am Update...

Our winter storm warning has expired. Snow should begin to wind down as we cross noon and the storm pulls away. Power outages are rising quickly and we are now over 53,000. (What was your vote...?)

We expect only snow showers as we head through the afternoon with no further accumulation. We may even see a peak of sun later in the day. For now..try and dig out and warm up if you have power because the models show another Winter storm on the way in a few days....More on that Thursday.

Power Outages

TUESDAY

  • 1pm: 16
  • 2pm: 97
  • 11pm:367

Wednesday

  • 6:45am: 9,232
  • 7:25am: 18,723
  • 10:10am: 29,992
  • 11:30 am: 53,404

WINNER...for the few that picked the OVER. Now all we need is some door prizes to give away...Bummer Bad Economy got us again!

Look for a recap of this storm and an explanation as to why it was so bad in the coming days under "The Storm in Alvin's Head". You can get there by clicking at the link at the top of the page or the hyper link here. For now, site instructions and update information is on there for anyone who had any trouble finding their way around over the last 2 days.

What's Coming...Jan Hit

A BREAK
As the snow moves out...we'll see a break until Thursday evening as a clipper is expect to roll through. More on that a bit later.

Our Thoughts Jan Hit

UPDATE: 11:00am Tuesday







STORM 1 TIMELINE : COMPLETE


Monday 11pm-Tuesday 1am: Snow Begins may mix with a litte sleet at onset
1am-7am: Snow, heavy at times (3"-4" Accumulation)
7am-10am: Snow Showers (1"-2" additional Accumulation)

Accumulations of 4"-6" with Heaviest amounts along and south of the Ohio River by noon Tuesday.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
STORM 2 TIMELINE

Tuesday 10am-12pm: well needed break
12pm - 4pm: light mix (1"-2" sleet/snow & light Ice Accumulation)
4pm - 4am: Sleet/Frzing Rain (Heavy) (Up to 1" Ice Accumulation)
Wednesday 4am - 7am: Sleet gets added back in (1" Sleet..1/10" Ice)
7am-12pm: Snow (3"-4" Accumulation) Most NW side of town
12pm -5pm: Flurries and snow showers and finally a break. (no additional accumulation)

Storm 2 Accumulation 4"-5" Snow/Sleet (3/4" Ice Accumulations ) by Wednesday noon.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL STORM ACCUMULATIONS WILL VARY DEPENDING ON SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN, but should be in the 8"-12" range with additional Sleet and Freezing rain accumulation.

At this point...does it really matter if it's 5",6",7",8",9",10",11", 12"....? We've got our best winter storm on the way this season.

Interactive 7 Day Forecaster




Take a look at the interactive weather forecaster. There is a weekly forecast as well as hour by hour and radar. Refresh the page if forecaster is missing.

Saturday, January 24, 2009

BACK TO REALITY

CHANGES ARE COMING

The 50's from Friday are now gone and we are back in the 20s this weekend. Morning flurries and snow showers on Saturday won't amount to much, but it does indicate that the cold front has gone through and is now south of us.

Next Week is still looking active. The cold front that goes through this weekend is going to stall near the KY/TN border. A large storm will hang back in the 4 corners and kick out smaller storms towards to Ohio Valley beginning on Sunday night. Accumulating snow looks likely on Tuesday, and then a stronger storm needs to be watched for Thursday. The stalled front will be the track for the storms. Since we are projected to be on the north side of the front on Tuesday, our precip should remain all frozen. Thursday's storm will be stronger and may be a different story as it pushes warmer air into the region.

Take a look at this computer model image for Tuesday. Given how narrow this band there will be a sharp cutoff to the accumulating snow. We'll likely see another situation where if you live just 5 miles outside of area effected by the track of this storm, you see nothing.

At this point, don't focus on the exact placement of the storm, that will be modified and worked out over the weekend.


AND THE WEATHER ISN'T THE ONLY THING CHANGING....



BIG CHANGES...FOR WEATHER LOGIC
A NEW AND IMPROVED WEATHER LOGIC IS COMING!!!! We are close to completing the new site and expect to have it up and running for the action next week. Here's a sneak peak. We expect to have the new site up by the end of the weekend...



WEATHER FORECASTER



Take a look at the interactive weather forecaster. There is a weekly forecast as well as hour by hour and radar. Enjoy.

Monday, January 19, 2009

WARM UP & SNEAK PEAK

FRYIN' FRIDAY
50's today people....50's! The Nice warming trend we've been talking about is here and you should enjoy it today, because it will literally be gone tomorrow. We'll have highs near 30 this weekend with some passing flurries off of the Great Lakes.

Next Week is still looking active. The cold front that goes through this weekend is going to stall near the KY/TN border. A large storm will hang back in the 4 corners and kick out smaller storms towards to Ohio Valley beginning on Tuesday and continuing until the weekend. The stalled front will be the track for the storms. Since we are projected to be on the north side of the front, our precip should be frozen.

Although these will be weaker storms, they will have the potential to drop accumulating snow in a narrow band, that right now looks to be focused on our area. Given how narrow this band there will be a sharp cutoff to the accumulating snow. We'll likely see another situation where if you live just 5 miles outside of area effected by the track of this storm, you see nothing.

At this point, don't focus on the exact placement of the storm, that will be modified and worked out over the weekend.

For now, enjoy the warm up...and check back for updates next week's storm.



BIG CHANGES...FOR WEATHER LOGIC
A NEW AND IMPROVED WEATHER LOGIC IS COMING!!!! We're going to use this downtime to improve the Weather Logic site. With all of our funding, we've gone out and purchased a new free template that should enhance the site and content, complete with links and tabs to more easily navigate. Here's a sneak peak. We expect to have the new site up by the end of the weekend....and ready for next week.



WEATHER FORECASTER







Take a look at the interactive weather forecaster. There is a weekly forecast as well as hour by hour and radar. Enjoy.



Saturday, January 17, 2009

Little Snow

9PM Update Sunday
A round of snow showers will move into the area between 9pm and 1am.  Accumulations will generally stay under 1".  Isolated amounts 1" will be possible south of the river.

SATURDAY & SUNDAY SNOW...W/O THE %

We have another weak system moving through the area this weekend. Yet again we have 2 weather forecasting models saying opposite things. One says snow for tonight and the other says a miss. You know we don't use % in our forecast, but if you watch the weather channel or other media you'll probably hear that there is a 50% chance of snow. That's because 1 model says snow and 1 models says nothing. So they win either way. If it snows...you got the 50% chance of snow...If it doesn't you got the 50% of nothing. What's that really tell ya?

We think most of the heavy snows will be well to our north near Michigan, but we snow showers head in for Saturday Night. We expect a covering of snow by Sunday morning and additional snow showers on Sunday. Accumulations should hold under 1"


Not large accumulations by any means, but it's something
.


WATCH THE STORM COME IN
We expect the storm to form up near Michigan and expand southward through the area Saturday wears on.


"GROUND RADAR"
This radar shows what's actually reaching the ground. We'll monitory to see if we will be bitten by the dry air bug.

WEATHER FORECASTER







Take a look at the interactive weather forecaster. There is a weekly forecast as well as hour by hour and radar. Enjoy.




Wednesday, January 14, 2009

BRRRRRR.....

SCIENCE EXPERIMENT...
Instead of our typical recap, we are faced with a unique opportunity. Since Mother Nature won't bring us real snow, you can make your own...

Take a look at this video below. Boiling water will instantly condense, form a cloud, and snow INSTANTLY at extremely cold temps. You need it to be below 10 degrees for this experiment to work, and the warmer it is, the less water you should use.

It's important to note that it's -35 in this video and we won't be that cold. We expect the low tonight around -5. We are not saying to try this experiment, but know some will. SO IF YOU ATTEMPT THIS, THE WATER MUST BE BOILING AND YOU MUST USE LESS THAN A FULL MUG. MAKE SURE YOU THROW THE WATER AWAY FROM YOU, HIGH, AND WITH THE WIND. Some of that water will come back down as not all of it will condense.

Click HERE for some good tips before attempting.

(Attempt at your own risk: Weather Logic and it's creators take no responsibility for any action that may result in injury.)

NOTE: In 1 of the experiments they use a pot of water. We won't be cold enough for that. A cup at the max.



UPDATE ON THE EXPERIMENT
Ok...we admit it...we tried it last night at 4 degrees and it worked. The best results came with 1/3 of a cup of water that had to be boiling. Now we just have to do it about 10,000 more times to cover the yard with snow!

Brrrrr....

The cold has arrived. We've mentioned it for 10 days now and it has arrived right on time. The low was -6 this morning and we'll warm to a whopping 12 today. Tonight we expect to stay above zero and it will feel like spring on saturday as we warm into the upper 20's. But you know, when we warm up, that typically means another storm is on the way. Saturday night may bring some snow showers that we're watching. At this point, it doesn't look to be much in accumulation. We should hold at 1" or less.

The extreme cold will be short lived as we expect to be back in the 20's this weekend and 30's early next week. We may even get above freezing by Wednesday!!!

Be sure to check out "The Storm in Alvin's Head" (below) as to why it's getting so cold.

NEXT SNOW CHANCES
Look to be on Saturday night. We are still waiting on what we consider a Real Storm. Something with measurable snow that requires a shovel instead of a broom to get it off the drive. We'll be on the look out and keep you updated on this weekend.




WEATHER FORECASTER



Take a look at the interactive weather forecaster. There is a weekly forecast as well as hour by hour and radar. Enjoy.

SNOW...THEN RIDICULOUS COLD

7am Update: Lingering Flurries
Snow...primarilary on the north and east side will add up to another 1/2" this morning. Since it's so cold, we are sqeezing out the last bit of moisture in the air. We'll have more on the extreme cold later this morning.
Accumulations from Wednesday storm were very spotty. It was amazing to see next to nothing in Northern KY by last night's rush but not even see the grass as I drove through clermont county. We scanned the artimis cameras to see who got the best snow and it appears the main accumulation line cut off near northern Hamilton county. This shot is from Warren county. Congrats to those who live up that way...you were the winners on this one. Just look at the shot below compared to the cameras in NKY.

We stated last night there would be a sharp cut off to the snow and we're seeing that in the counties south of the river as well as where the NWS has issued there advisory. Don't be surprised to see accumulating snow on the way home. We do think the intensity will pick up a bit this evening. All counties along the river will see an inch or lesss of snow through this evening, however counties north of them are expected to see 2".
Be sure hit the REFRESH button for the latest.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
The NWS has issues a Winter Weather Advisory for parts of the area.

Click HERE for the details.











THE POLAR PUSH
For all of you Sam Kinison fans..."Grab you kids...Grab your 'stuff' ", we'll make one trip...We'll take you to where the warm is...because it won't be here.

We are watching late week for a "Ridiculous Cold" outbreak around Mid and late week. Below zero readings are possible. We are watching 1 more arctic storm that will lay down a blanket of snow before ushering in arctic air. When the ground is not exposed that arctic air can not warm which is why we expect below 0 temperatures late next week. We'll have more as we get closer to the event


WEATHER FORECASTER





Take a look at the interactive weather forecaster. There is a weekly forecast as well as hour by hour and radar. Enjoy.

Tuesday, January 13, 2009

NEXT ONE IS HERE

7am Update: VERDICT IS IN
We've taken a look at the latest model runs Tuesday night and have decided to go with an accumulating snow for our area. The colder air tends to squeeze out any available precipitation and we'll be in the teens for most of this event. That's why we are seeing an "opening act" (snow showers overnight and during the morning rush) before the main event comes in on Wednesday around lunch.

There will be a sharp cut off to the accumulating snow however. Just 2 counties south of the river will see very little in accumulation. Any shift to the north with this storm will bring lesser amounts to the tri-state. That's our fine print!!!

Be sure hit the REFRESH button for the latest.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
The NWS has issues a Winter Weather Advisory for parts of the area.

Click HERE for the details.




TIMELINE
4am-10am Scattered Snow Showers (<1"

10am-4pm Steady Snow (1"-2" Along River, 1" south)
4pm-7am Scattered snow showers (<1")


TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS
This is our best crack at snowfall accumulations through Wednesday evening.






THE POLAR PUSH
For all of you Sam Kinison fans..."Grab you kids...Grab your 'stuff' ", we'll make one trip...We'll take you to where the warm is...because it won't be here.

We are watching late week for a "Ridiculous Cold" outbreak around Mid and late week. Below zero readings are possible. We are watching 1 more arctic storm that will lay down a blanket of snow before ushering in arctic air. When the ground is not exposed that arctic air can not warm which is why we expect below 0 temperatures late next week. We'll have more as we get closer to the event


WEATHER FORECASTER







Take a look at the interactive weather forecaster. There is a weekly forecast as well as hour by hour and radar. Enjoy.

NEXT ONE ON THE WAY

8PM UPDATE:
Areas north of the river will see periods of snow showers and will pick up a dusting to a covering by midnight. South of the river will primarily be scattered flurries with up to a dusting. The new computer models are running and we hope to have an update by 11pm tonight. Stay tuned.

NEXT ONE COMING ALREADY!!!
Really no time to cry over spilled milk. Our next clipper is on the way, and this one is no easier to forecast. 1 weather models keep the storm to our north and others nail us in snow. We'd like 1 more run of the models around 10pm tonight before making a call. There is just too much disagreement at this point.

This is a storm where you will hear different predictions depending on who you listen to. You'll get a good laugh. Tune in to a different news station tonight for each of the weather segments at 5, 5:30, and 6. I bet you hear a different answer or a LARGE RANGE on each one.

This storm is working with Arctic air and that will be the talk of the rest of the week. We'll be watching the storm this evening and will be back with a timeline and snowfall map late tonight.

The nice part about this storm is that it will come in during the day on Wednesday an we still have some time to watch it. Though we'll see scattered flurries until the main event, the accumulating snows should not move in before 10am Wednesday. We'll be modifying the forecast and will even throw up a snowfall map for this one...NO GUNSHYNESS HERE!

Be sure hit the REFRESH button for the latest.




THE POLAR PUSH
For all of you Sam Kinison fans..."Grab you kids...Grab your 'stuff' ", we'll make one trip...We'll take you to where the warm is...because it won't be here.

We are watching late week for a "Ridiculous Cold" outbreak around Mid and late week. Below zero readings are possible. We are watching 1 more arctic storm that will lay down a blanket of snow before ushering in arctic air. When the ground is not exposed that arctic air can not warm which is why we expect below 0 temperatures late next week. We'll have more as we get closer to the event



WEATHER FORECASTER



Take a look at the interactive weather forecaster. There is a weekly forecast as well as hour by hour and radar. Enjoy.

Saturday, January 10, 2009

2 MORE...THEN COLD

UPDATE 7am:A BUST
Timing right, Snow amount...not so much
Take a look at the radar from this morning. As the snow approaches it actually turns to rain over cincy. The warmth from the storm kicking up gulf of mexico moisture actually kept our temps just above freezing overnight to 34. This caused the snow to melt as it fell overnight. Temperatures will still drop behind the cold front today and we'll see some snow showers but will not amount to much in accumulation.




Be sure hit the REFRESH button for the latest.



THE POLAR PUSH
For all of you Sam Kinison fans..."Grab you kids...Grab your 'stuff' ", we'll make one trip...We'll take you to where the warm is...because it won't be here.

We are watching next week for a "Ridiculous Cold" outbreak around Mid and late week. Below zero readings are possible. We are watching 2 arctic storms that will lay down a blanket of snow before ushering in arctic air. When the ground is not exposed that arctic air can not warm which is why we expect below 0 temperatures late next week. We'll have more as we get closer to the event


A LITTLE COMICAL FUN
In keeping with the theme of this post:






WEATHER FORECASTER



Take a look at the interactive weather forecaster. There is a weekly forecast as well as hour by hour and radar. Enjoy.







Thursday, January 8, 2009

3 MORE STORMS...THEN RIDICULOUS COLD

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...(For Some)
The NWS has issues a Winter Weather Advisory for areas north of the 275 loop beginng 1AM Saturday until 7pm Sat night. Be careful if you live up that way.

Click HERE for the details.




NEXT STORM = SATURDAY
This certainly appears to be a winter storm for areas to our north. Cincinnati will get primarily rain from this event.

We expect Freezing Rain to move in after midnight. Turning to plain rain around dawn. Very light ice accumulation is possible. The cold front will go through and change what's left over to snow after lunch but by that time, most of the moisture will have moved through, so snow totals will remain light. Should be <1">

Take a look at the computer model below. We thought we'd share a little of what we look at to make these forecasts. Hopefully you know where Cincy is. (hey...you'd be surprised). This model will show the ice (red) come in over night then turn to rain (green) before ending as snow (blue). This is as close as you will get to looking into a "Crystal Ball" and seeing the future. Notice at the end of the run a "blob" coming our way from North Dakota. That's our Tuesday storm. Next week is our turn for accumulating snows.

(We know this image is a little small...we are working on funding to improve technology and will get a larger display as the funding comes in! Who's up for a donation?)


CLICK THE PLAY BUTTON




Be sure to come back and REFRESH the page later this afternoon for the latest and our timeline.


WATCH THE STORM COME IN




THE POLAR PUSH
For all of you Sam Kinison fans..."Grab you kids...Grab your 'stuff' ", we'll make one trip...We'll take you to where the warm is...because it won't be here.

We are watching next week for a "Ridiculous Cold" outbreak around Mid and late week. Below zero readings are possible. We are watching 2 arctic storms that will lay down a blanket of snow before ushering in arctic air. When the ground is not exposed that arctic air can not warm which is why we expect below 0 temperatures late next week. We'll have more as we get closer to the event

WEATHER FORECASTER



Take a look at the interactive weather forecaster. There is a weekly forecast as well as hour by hour and radar. Enjoy.

Monday, January 5, 2009

WINTERY WEEK

"SNOW SHOWER WEDNESDAY"
We expect rain Tuesday night out ahead of our cold front that will take us into a cold pattern. The rain will change to snow showers on Wednesday and stick around to Thursday. Though it won't snow hard for long periods of time, some light accumulations are possible given how long it sticks around. Accumulations should stay at an inch or less.

Be sure to REFRESH the page when you come back.



TRACKING THE STORM
We've added a new Radar that shows the Ice/Snow actually reaching the ground.

WEATHER FORECASTER



Take a look at the interactive weather forecaster. There is a weekly forecast as well as hour by hour and radar. Enjoy.



Thursday, January 1, 2009

I FEEL A CHANGE...WILL DO US GOOD!

NICE WEATHER...TO START THE YEAR

The image to sum up this post, may be a bit tricky at first....but take a close look and it will all come together. (Check the comments for the answer).

After a few snow showers on Wednesday, we'll have some nice weather until the 2nd half of the weekend. Our friday storm that we were watching early this week will now miss us to the east and our attention now goes towards the next storm system on Saturday Night.


A pattern changing storm system will come through Saturday night and Sunday. This particular storm looks to bring primarily rain to the region, but sets the stage up for stormy week ahead with colder temperatures.




SNOWY PATTERN SETTING UP
We see a pretty cold and snowy pattern setting up beginning the middle of next week and lasting until mid month. Snow chances every few days and colder temperatures. We should see some actual accumulations with these storms and we'll have the details on each one along with predictions as we get closer to each event.

We'll keep you posted. Be sure to REFRESH for the latest.



WEATHER FORECASTER



Take a look at the interactive weather forecaster. There is a weekly forecast as well as hour by hour and radar. Enjoy.