Thurs Morning Update:
The snow has moved in and the models have backed off with the snowfall totals, however, I think this may be a case of where they are wrong.
Watching the radar this morning I see some heavy banding setting up and I think the 'heating of the day' adds to the instability.
I expect the intensity to pick up as we head towards lunch and then start to lighten up around the rush hour. The heaviest snows should be from 11am to 4pm today. I am going to stick with my 5" call at this point. Besides...it will be so windy and the snow will be blown all around by the time we can get a measurement...We'll always have that to fall back on! ;-)
Be careful out there this afternoon...and I'd get a few layers ready for tomorrow...it will be lucky to get into the Teens!
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It's mid-week and DO YOU KNOW WHERE YOUR SHOVEL IS? Time to put the umbrella away and dig out the shovel and salt....you're gunna need it by Thursday night.
Yes folks, a Winter Storm Warning is up for the Cincinnati Area, and we agree this one will be a "shoveler". Click HERE for the details.
This is going to be a 24 hour storm and primarily through the daylight hours on Thursday. So if the schools don't cancel Thursday morning, you may be looking at an early release. We think this one gets going just before the morning rush on Thursday and finishes just after midnight.
A storm will come out of Wyoming and Nebraska on Wednesday (watch the radar below) and it will track across Missouri and right into the Ohio Valley for Thursday. Snow should start just before the morning rush hour and pick up in intensity as we head towards lunch on Thursday. It will continue into the evening and should begin to taper off around the evening rush hour.
All said and done, we think right around 5" is a good call on this one. And this won't be one of those "South of the river gets this and north gets that"...this one is set up to get everyone in on the action!
We'll be watching the noon model runs and will let you know of any changes...but for now, I'd locate that shovel!
Here's how we see the accumulations going on Thursday:
These three things will determine exactly how much you receive in your backyard. Now, don't forget, this is going to be primarily a daytime event. Not sure why the schools went on a delay as things will go downhill quickly as we head through the morning.
We still like the call of 3"-5" across the area. With the heaviest being on the North and West side of the city and the lower amounts on the East. Check out our snowfall map below.
After reviewing the forecast models, there is 1 new development. A "Wildcard" if you will. The storm will cause Divergence (splitting of winds high in the atmosphere) over the area around and just after lunch. This will cause the air over the area to rise quickly and enhance the snowfall for a few hours. Where that happens isolated snowfall amounts could be a bit higher in those locations.
Click the image below to see what it looks like...or you could just take our word for it.
2"-3" Accumulation by 6pm...additional 1"-2" through Friday.
(CLICK IMAGE TO ENLARGE)
Total Accumulations 3"-5"
11:00am Update...
Our winter storm warning has expired. Snow should begin to wind down as we cross noon and the storm pulls away. Power outages are rising quickly and we are now over 53,000. (What was your vote...?)
We expect only snow showers as we head through the afternoon with no further accumulation. We may even see a peak of sun later in the day. For now..try and dig out and warm up if you have power because the models show another Winter storm on the way in a few days....More on that Thursday.
Power Outages
TUESDAY
Wednesday
Look for a recap of this storm and an explanation as to why it was so bad in the coming days under "The Storm in Alvin's Head". You can get there by clicking at the link at the top of the page or the hyper link here. For now, site instructions and update information is on there for anyone who had any trouble finding their way around over the last 2 days.
UPDATE: 11:00am Tuesday
AND THE WEATHER ISN'T THE ONLY THING CHANGING....
BIG CHANGES...FOR WEATHER LOGIC
A NEW AND IMPROVED WEATHER LOGIC IS COMING!!!! We are close to completing the new site and expect to have it up and running for the action next week. Here's a sneak peak. We expect to have the new site up by the end of the weekend...
WEATHER FORECASTER
Take a look at the interactive weather forecaster. There is a weekly forecast as well as hour by hour and radar. Enjoy.
Next Week is still looking active. The cold front that goes through this weekend is going to stall near the KY/TN border. A large storm will hang back in the 4 corners and kick out smaller storms towards to Ohio Valley beginning on Tuesday and continuing until the weekend. The stalled front will be the track for the storms. Since we are projected to be on the north side of the front, our precip should be frozen.
Although these will be weaker storms, they will have the potential to drop accumulating snow in a narrow band, that right now looks to be focused on our area. Given how narrow this band there will be a sharp cutoff to the accumulating snow. We'll likely see another situation where if you live just 5 miles outside of area effected by the track of this storm, you see nothing.
At this point, don't focus on the exact placement of the storm, that will be modified and worked out over the weekend.
For now, enjoy the warm up...and check back for updates next week's storm.
BIG CHANGES...FOR WEATHER LOGIC
A NEW AND IMPROVED WEATHER LOGIC IS COMING!!!! We're going to use this downtime to improve the Weather Logic site. With all of our funding, we've gone out and purchased a new free template that should enhance the site and content, complete with links and tabs to more easily navigate. Here's a sneak peak. We expect to have the new site up by the end of the weekend....and ready for next week.
WEATHER FORECASTER
Take a look at the interactive weather forecaster. There is a weekly forecast as well as hour by hour and radar. Enjoy.
